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BY SAL MARINO | VICE PRESIDENT, CARGONET | VERISK
Cargo theft has always been cyclical. Commodities change, geographic hot spots shift and criminal organizations adjust their methods in response to opportunity, enforcement pressure and vulnerabilities across the supply chain. What distinguishes today's environment is the speed of that change. Technology has made transportation and logistics more efficient, but the same tools and information that help move freight can also create new opportunities for sophisticated criminal organizations.
Verisk CargoNet's second-quarter 2026 data shows an important reality for shippers, carriers, brokers, insurers, and supply chain professionals: cargo theft risk can no longer be measured by incident counts alone. A declining number of thefts does not necessarily indicate declining risk.
Verisk CargoNet recorded 662 cargo-theft incidents in Q2 2026, down from 976 in Q2 2025 and 890 in Q2 2024. On its own, that decline appears encouraging. The financial impact, however, tells a different story. Reported stolen commodity value reached approximately $151 million in Q2 2026, compared with $73 million in Q2 2025 and $42 million in Q2 2024. Average stolen commodity value also rose to approximately $567,000, up from $203,000 in Q2 2025 and $158,000 in Q2 2024.
In other words, reported incident frequency declined while the financial severity of those incidents increased substantially. That distinction matters because measuring cargo crime exclusively by incident count can create a false sense of security. Today's threat environment requires companies to consider not only how often theft occurs, but also what is being stolen, how criminals gain control of shipments and how much damage a successful event can cause.
One constant in cargo theft is change.
When one commodity becomes harder to monetize, criminals migrate to another. When security improves in one location, activity moves elsewhere. When traditional theft becomes more difficult, criminals look for ways to manipulate the legitimate transportation process.
The commodity data illustrates that movement.
Food and beverage remained the most frequently reported category in Q2 2026, accounting for 121 incidents. Metals, however, increased from 35 incidents in Q2 2024 to 66 incidents in Q2 2025 and 77 incidents in Q2 2026.
Within the metals category, copper theft has been particularly persistent. Reported copper thefts rose from 23 incidents in Q2 2024 to 48 in Q2 2025 and 53 in Q2 2026.
These shifts reinforce a critical lesson for supply chain security professionals: criminals follow opportunity. Value, demand, availability, and ease of resale all influence what becomes attractive at a given moment. Yesterday's theft profile should never become tomorrow's security strategy.
Cargo theft activity is also constantly evolving geographically.
California remained the leading state for reported cargo theft in Q2 2026 with 214 incidents, followed by Texas with 66 and New Jersey with 46. Together, those three states represented a significant portion of reported activity.
Those figures also demonstrate the ebb and flow of cargo theft.
Reported incidents in California declined from 295 in Q2 2025 to 214 in Q2 2026, while Texas declined from 113 to 66. New Jersey moved in the opposite direction, increasing from 17 incidents in Q2 2024 to 33 in Q2 2025 and 46 in Q2 2026.
The lesson is straightforward: security programs cannot remain static. Effective risk management depends on current intelligence and continuous monitoring, not assumptions based on where theft activity was concentrated six or 12 months ago.
Another important evolution has been the continued intersection of physical cargo theft and fraud.
Verisk CargoNet distinguishes traditional theft from categories such as fictitious pickup and fraud. In Q2 2026, Verisk CargoNet recorded 386 theft incidents, 155 fictitious pickups, 58 burglary-and-theft incidents and 42 fraud incidents.
That distinction matters because some of today's most sophisticated schemes do not begin with someone cutting a fence or breaking into a trailer.
Instead, they begin with information.
Criminals may impersonate legitimate transportation companies, manipulate shipment instructions, exploit weaknesses in carrier-vetting processes or otherwise convince someone within the legitimate supply chain to hand over a shipment voluntarily.
In those situations, the physical theft may be the final step in a crime that began digitally.
The CargoNet database illustrates the importance of combining technology with human intelligence. Since January 2010, Verisk CargoNet has aggregated and analyzed reported cargo-theft incidents across the United States and Canada, using 144 specific data fields to identify vulnerabilities, map theft patterns and help forecast emerging challenges.
The greatest value of this intelligence is not simply understanding where theft occurred in the past. It is helping security professionals, insurers, and supply chain leaders recognize how the threat is changing and where new vulnerabilities may emerge.
Technology plays an important role, but technology alone is not enough. The strongest security strategies combine advanced analytics with experienced professionals who can interpret trends, identify risks, and make informed decisions before losses occur.
The decline in reported incident volume during Q2 2026 must be viewed alongside the dramatic increase in reported loss severity. For those of us who have worked in cargo-theft prevention for years, the lesson is familiar: the threat does not disappear; it evolves.
That reality also underscores the limits of relying on a single national incident count to define the scope of cargo theft.
The industry has become fixated on one question: How many cargo thefts occur in the United States each year? A complete count would be valuable, but waiting for one should not keep companies from acting on the intelligence already available.
Reported incidents reveal where thefts occur, what criminals target and how their methods are changing. These patterns help companies assess exposure, prioritize resources and build risk management strategies around the threats they face. The practical question is not whether we have a final national number. It is whether we are using the available data to make better decisions today.
Commodities change. Hot spots change. Methods change. Criminal organizations adapt. The challenge is not to predict one permanent version of the threat, but to build security programs capable of evolving just as quickly.
The data in this post is just the surface. Watch our recorded webinar where CargoNet's Sal Marino, SPG's Scott Cornell, the California Trucking Association, and Cloudastructure break down what AI can actually do against cargo theft, and where it falls short.
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To learn more about emerging cargo theft trends and how organizations can strengthen their security strategies, contact Sal Marino, Vice President of CargoNet.
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About Sal Marino. Vice President, CargoNet.
Sal Marino is Vice President of CargoNet, a Verisk business, with more than 30 years of experience in transportation and logistics, including over 16 years focused on cargo security, theft, and freight fraud. Sal has played a key role in the growth and development of CargoNet into one of the industry’s leading cargo theft intelligence, analytics, and information-sharing platforms. He works closely with transportation companies, insurers, shippers, law enforcement, and industry organizations to identify emerging threats and develop strategies to combat cargo theft and freight fraud. In addition to his role at CargoNet, Sal serves in leadership and board positions with industry organizations focused on transportation, cargo security, and supply chain risk, including serving as Chair of the Northeast Cargo Security Council (NECSC). He is also a frequent industry speaker and commentator on cargo theft trends, organized cargo crime, strategic theft, fictitious pickups, freight fraud, and emerging risks impacting the supply chain.
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